Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
