A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
